Customer purchase forecasting for online tourism: A data-driven method with multiplex behavior data

Online tourism has received increasing attention from scholars and practitioners due to its growing contribution to the economy. While related issues have been studied, research on forecasting customer purchases and the influence of forecasting variables, online tourism is still in its infancy. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a data-driven method to achieve two objectives: (1) provide an accurate purchase forecasting model for online tourism and (2) analyze the influence of behavior variables as predictors of online tourism purchases. Based on the real-world multiplex behavior data, the proposed method can predict online tourism purchases accurately by machine learning algorithms. As for the practical implications, the influence of behavior variables is ranked according to the predictive marginal value, and how these important variables affect the final purchase is discussed with the help of partial dependence plots. This research contributes to the purchase forecasting literature and has significant practical implications.     

An empirical examination of the effects of design elements of email newsletters on consumers’ email responses and their purchase

In this research, we empirically explore the effects of various design elements of email newsletters on consumers' email responses and their purchases. We capture the consumers' email responses using three metrics, namely email open, email click, and email reopen. We operationalize consumers' purchases as their spending on product items that are featured in email newsletters. Using a novel email marketing database, first, we model the influence of design elements of email newsletter on consumers' email responses at the individual consumer level. The email design elements constitute several email attributes, situational factors, and integrated marketing communication. Second, we quantify the effects of these three email responses, open, click, and reopen, on consumers' purchases. Our empirical results suggest a significant influence of email attributes, situational factors, and marketing communications on consumers' email responses. Furthermore, among open, click, and reopen, we find clicks tend to have the highest impact on consumers’ purchase, followed by email reopening and opening. However, email newsletters with higher opening probability are more effective in influencing purchases than those email newsletters with higher reopening probability. Furthermore, consumers who indulge in all three email responses, namely opening, clicking, and reopening, tend to purchase the most. Results from our study offer several critical insights for email marketing strategy helping managers improving the effectiveness of email campaigns by careful consideration for the design elements of email newsletters.     

Why Do They Keep Coming Back? The Effect of Push Motives vs. Pull Motives,and Attribute Satisfaction on Repeat Visitation of Tourist Destinations

We conjecture that attribute satisfaction, push motives and pull motives will be positively related to return visitation of tourist destinations. We also hypothesize that push factors will be stronger related to return visitation of tourist destinations than pull factors, both directly and indirectly as mediators of the relationship between attribute satisfaction and return visitation. In addition, we predict that age and gender will moderate the effect of push and pull factors on repeat visitation. Finally, we argue that push factors and pull factors will be mutually reinforcing. To test these hypotheses, we conducted an online survey of repeat tourists’ motives, and received 986 complete responses. Survey participants were randomly chosen from a group that met a series or qualifying questions. PLS-SEM analysis of the data showed that, as we hypothesized, attribute satisfaction and push motives were positively related to repeat visitation. In contrast, pull motives were not related to repeat visitation, either directly or indirectly, but did reinforce the effect of push motives; gender did not moderate either push or pull motives and age moderated only pull motives. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Lowest price guarantees on airline websites: Perceived believability,perceived value,and purchase intentions

Although lowest price guarantees (LPGs) are common on airlines’ official websites, a deeper understanding of how customers evaluate these guarantees is lacking. This study examines the effects of two LPG terms—depth of refund and refund conditions—on customer perceptions and purchase intention. An experiment with a 2 × 2 factorial design was conducted with a sample of 282 adults, and structural equation modelling was used to test the model. The results show that refund depth increases customer purchase intention by enhancing perceptions of the believability and value of the LPG. Strict refund conditions enhance customer purchase intention by increasing the believability of the LPGs.     

Sustainable dressing: Consumers' value perceptions towards slow fashion

Slow fashion that improves with an increasing awareness of sustainability has changed consumers' value perception and purchasing behaviours. The aim of this study is to determine slow fashion dimensions that influence consumers' value perceptions for slow fashion products and to reveal the effects of the perceived value on consumers' intentions to purchase and willingness to pay higher prices. The sample includes 725 students pursuing higher education in Turkey and Kazakhstan. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to specify the factor structure of the variables used in the research, and structural equation modelling was used to test the hypotheses. Data analysis showed that authenticity, locality, and exclusivity aspects in Turkey and equity, functionality, locality, and exclusivity aspects in Kazakhstan contributed to perceived customer value. Perceived customer value in both groups positively affects the intention to purchase and the willingness to pay higher prices. In addition, consumers who intend to purchase slow fashion clothing are willing to pay higher prices than other products. The results suggest that consumers in different countries have different orientations that influence their perceptions of value. From this perspective, this study can provide designers with insights on the importance of making sustainable designs that are appropriate to the target market beyond the trends imposed by the global fashion industry.     

Mobile Commerce Website Success: Antecedents of Consumer Satisfaction and Purchase Intention

With the rapid development of apparel mobile commerce in the United States, more companies view mobile commerce as a new source of competitive advantage. Despite the importance of apparel mobile website quality and its effect on consumer satisfaction and future purchase stimulus, extant research has paid little attention to these topics. This study proposes a website quality–consumer satisfaction–purchase intention research model based on the self-regulatory process theory. Six dimensions of apparel mobile website quality—website visual appeal, apparel visual appeal, brand trust, website information quality, website response time, and website security—were investigated. In all, 293 eligible responses were collected via an online survey. Multiple regression analysis was utilized to test the proposed relationships. Results reveal that website information quality, website visual appeal, apparel visual appeal, and website security positively affect consumer satisfaction toward apparel mobile commerce websites, while website response time and brand trust show insignificant impacts on consumer satisfaction. With higher satisfaction on an apparel mobile commerce website, consumers are more likely to purchase apparel through the website.     

时间压力对网络冲动性购买的影响研究：交易效用和感知风险的调节

以往关于时间压力对冲动性购买影响的研究结论具有两面性，即促进或抑制。文章引入交易效用和感知风险两个调节变量，通过两个实验探讨了时间压力对网络冲动性购买倾向影响的边界条件。首先，当交易效用较高时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的提高；而当交易效用较低时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的降低（实验一）。其次，当人们感知风险较低时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的提高；而当人们感知风险较高时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的降低（实验二）。研究结论可以帮助电商企业进一步了解消费者的冲动性购买行为，充分利用时间压力的影响，制定更灵活有效的促销策略。     

The unexpected effect of frugality on green purchase intention

Frugality is frequently associated with sustainable consumer behavior which contributes to a growing resource saving. In this study, we challenge the prevailing view. Compared to the positive effects of frugality, little work has focused on its negative effects. Thus, this study presents a research model which explores whether and how frugality influence green purchase intention. With data collected from 369 participants, the results report that frugality has a negative effect on green purchase intention. It is significantly mediated by motivation to save. In addition, green concern negatively moderates the relationship between frugality and purchase intention, and that between motivation to save and purchase intention. The study provides a deeper understanding of frugality, and develops an avenue to promote sustainable consumption.     

Home purchase restriction,real estate investment,and corporate innovation

It is ubiquitous for non-real estate firms to conduct real estate business in China. Home purchase restriction (HPR) affects corporate innovation by dampening the real estate investment of non-real estate firms. The extant literature has examined the impact of HPR on corporate innovation, but it has not focused on the expectation of HPR and the endogeneity problem. Employing a dataset of 1830 listed non-real estate firms over the period 2009–2016, this research explores the expectation of HPR on corporate innovation based on the motivations for real estate investment in non-real estate firms. We demonstrate that HPR facilitates the enhancement of research and development (R&D) investment in non-real estate listed firms by hindering real estate investment, particularly for non-high-tech firms. The effects of HPR arrive at the crest in the third implementation year and remain steady thereafter. The real estate investment of non-real estate firms rebounds and the R&D investment declines along with the cancellation of HPR. Tackling the selection bias and endogeneity problems, the baseline results are also robust. Hence, HPR should serve as a long-term vehicle to improving corporate innovation, in addition to preventing housing speculation.     

UGC信息类型及发布者头像对其他用户购买意愿的影响 ——基于社会化电商小红书社区的研究

社会化电商社区包含着丰富的用户生成内容,通过用户生成内容的生成、分享和传播,影响用户的购买意愿。从小红书社区“带货”现象出发,以心理距离理论为视角,探究具有不同信息类型的用户生成内容对其他用户购买意愿的影响,并且研究拥有肖像类头像的发布者特征的调节作用。通过实验研究发现,在社会化电子商务社区中,体验型用户生成内容对其他用户购买意愿具有正向的影响,且用户感知心理距离产生中介作用,对于以肖像形象作为头像的发布者而言,这种影响更为显著。